Possibly, but the big question I have with this analysis is that many of the other countries in the region are either NATO or EU members. Attacking one NATO member is attacking the whole alliance, and basically that equals annihilation for everyone; so, if he's not insane and not stupid, I don't think he'll be looking at Ukraine as being the same category of target as, say, Poland. There's also the issue that the west to some extent is willing to pretend that it sort of believes the various cover stories for the invasion, because they don't then have to go to war. But, let's say Ukrainian resistance collapses and the Russian army keeps on rolling. As soon as they cross another border everyone has to stop pretending what's actually happening. Let's say he rolls into Moldova. Big elements in Transnistria might be happy about that, but most Moldovan's won't be. Like Ukraine, Moldova is neither a member of the EU nor NATO, but do we really think that the west would simply swallow another act of war against a sovereign country? It's hard to see that playing out like Ukraine 2.0. I don't think Putin thinks it would play out the same way either. I'm not sure his ambitions are much more than a land grab on Ukraine. I think his message is much simpler than you suggest- more along the lines of "I'm taking this country back (back is how he sees it, I think) and I don't care if I reduce it to rubble to get it, I want the land and resources". I think (hope) that the threat of nuclear weapons use is intended to hold off the west while he occupies Ukraine. Once he's in possession I believe he thinks he'll be able to negotiate peace, leaving him with control over a significant proportion of global wheat production.