Probability, polarization and professions of nihilism

Hypothetical decline of healthy individuals in masking and non-masking groups when infection obeys Leonhardt’s dice rolling rules
The social gain in health (expressed as the difference in proportion infected) from masking as a function of the number of possible exposure events according to Leonhardt’s dice rolling game
Cumulative percentage COVID infection in masking and non-masking cohorts as a function of number of social exposure events when risk of infection follows Leonhardt’s dice rolling rules in one stochastic realization of the model.
Leonhardt’s dice rolling rule still applies, but now maskers cut their social interactions by 50% and avoid high risk situations

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Neil McRoberts

Neil McRoberts

Epidemiologist and interdisciplinary scientist at the University of California, Davis. I grew up in Scotland and have lived in the USA since 2010.